The Fermi Paradox

One way out would be if we are the first "advanced" civilization in the galaxy.

Could it be? Well, of the 13(ish) billion years since the Universe began, and the roughly 10 billion years since our galaxy formed, technological humans have existed on this planet around 150 years or so -- maybe around one fifty-millionth of the total time.

Campbell and Reece

So if there are any planets at all out there, some of them are likely to be older than Earth. Life on Earth apparently arose as soon after Late Heavy Bombardment as possible. So any planets out there could have had life arising on them billions of years before Earth even formed.

This is similar to applying the Drake Equation over the history of the galaxy (10 billion years or so), and asking what is the probability of an "advanced" civilization at any given time. The total probability over the past 10 billion years is likely to be much, much higher than 1 -- in other words, advanced civilization(s) would certainly have arrived.

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